Soft PCE, weak payrolls and patient Fed officials erase October hike odds
Bitcoin Insider reports futures pricing an October Fed hike at 22%, down from 66% on Monday, after soft August PCE, weak September payrolls and patient Fed officials.
Why it matters
Bitcoin gained about 1% over the stretch Bitcoin Insider measured, so the repricing of October hike odds has produced limited crypto movement so far, and Crypto.News noted that high Treasury yields and oil prices offset support from strong US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows. Bitcoin Insider reported short-term Treasury yields fell while long yields rose, steepening the curve back to where it stood before the September hike, and Crypto.News put the 10-year yield recently above 5.3%. Crypto.News said Bitcoin could get relief if softer October expectations keep pulling Treasury yields down.
Where the sources disagree
Current odds of an October Fed rate hike
22% by Friday afternoon, down from 66% on Monday, in futures
Bitcoin Insider
around 25%
Crypto.News
23% for a hike and 77% for a hold on Polymarket, from about 70% last week
Crypto.News
34% on CME FedWatch, down from 67%, with CoinGape prediction markets showing the same fall
CoinGape
about 44.8% on CME FedWatch after Williams spoke, down from above 70%
Crypto News (CryptoNews.net)
55.2% for no rate change in October on a Kalshi market
Crypto News (CryptoNews.net)
Venues and timestamps differ widely, so no single agreed level of October hike odds emerges from the set of reports.
Reason the Fed raised rates in September
rising inflation tied to Middle East uncertainty
CoinGape
the labor side of the Fed's congressional remit is in good shape
Protos
One account ties the September hike to inflation and Middle East uncertainty, while Protos says the Fed judged the labour side of its remit to be in good shape.
Figures that do not reconcile
Found by comparing the numbers in the reports automatically. They are differences, not yet confirmed to be about the same thing.
size of the move
4.2%
Protos
1%
Bitcoin Insider
Protos reports 4.2%, Bitcoin Insider reports 1% (76% apart).
Key facts
The Fed raised rates at its September meeting, its first increase since 2023, taking the target range to 3.75%-4%.
3.75 %Reported by Crypto News (CryptoNews.net)
Goldman Sachs moved its forecast for a second rate hike from October to December.
Reported by CoinGape
August headline PCE inflation was reported at 3.4%, below the 3.7% expectation.
3.4 %Reported by CoinGape
August core PCE inflation was reported at 3.0% year on year against a 3.3% expectation by Crypto News and at 3.01% year on year by Crypto.News.
3 %Disputed figureReported by Crypto News (CryptoNews.net)
Goldman Sachs expects fourth-quarter core PCE inflation of 3.0% year on year, 0.4 percentage points below the 3.4% median projection of Fed policymakers.
3 %Reported by CoinGape
New York Fed President John Williams and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson both said policymakers saw no urgency to move again after the September hike.
Reported by Crypto News (CryptoNews.net)
Futures priced the odds of an October 25-basis-point Fed hike at 22% by Friday afternoon, against 66% on Monday.
22 %Disputed figureReported by Bitcoin Insider
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported September payrolls up 29,000 against a forecast of 84,000, with the unemployment rate at 4.2%.
29,000 jobsDisputed figureReported by Protos
What happened
The Fed raised rates to a 3.75%-4% range at its September meeting, and by Friday afternoon futures put the odds of another 25-basis-point increase at the October 28 meeting at 22%, down from 66% on Monday, Bitcoin Insider reported. August headline PCE inflation came in at 3.4% against a 3.7% expectation and core PCE at 3.0% year on year against a 3.3% expectation, CoinGape and Crypto News reported, with Crypto.News giving the core year-on-year figure as 3.01% and the monthly rise as 0.25%. New York Fed President John Williams said after that meeting that there is no need for urgency, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson told the University of Virginia on October 1 that his colleagues' judgment may take more time, Governor Michael Barr continues to back further tightening and Kashkari is undecided. Goldman Sachs moved its forecast for a second rate hike from October to December, expects fourth-quarter core PCE of 3.0% against the 3.4% median among Fed policymakers, and says there is a strong chance the FOMC decides no more hikes are needed this year. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported September payrolls up 29,000 against a forecast of 84,000 with unemployment at 4.2%, and Protos reports the agency has cut July and August job gains by a combined 60,000. The current odds figure depends on where it is measured: CME FedWatch showed about 44.8% right after Williams spoke, CoinGape put that tool at 34% and its own markets at 67% falling to 34%, Crypto.News cited Polymarket at 23% for a hike and 77% for a hold, another Crypto.News report put markets near 25%, and a Kalshi market showed 55.2% for no change.
How the story developed
- First report
First report by Crypto News (CryptoNews.net)
October Fed Rate Hike Odds Drop to 44% After Williams’ Dovish Remarks
- Update
Williams says there is no need for urgency after September's hike
Speaking at the University at Buffalo, Williams said the September decision to 3.75%-4% gives policymakers time to gather more information, and CME FedWatch odds for an October hike fell from above 70% to about 44.8%.
- Independent corroboration
Independently corroborated by CoinGape
Ethereum Price Forecast as Fed Rate Hike Odds Drop on Cooling US Inflation
- Official statement
August PCE inflation comes in below expectations
Headline PCE was 3.4% against a 3.7% expectation, and core PCE 3.0% year on year against a 3.3% expectation by one account and 3.01% by another.
- Update
Goldman Sachs moves its second-hike forecast to December
The bank said an October hike is now unlikely, expects fourth-quarter core PCE of 3.0% against the 3.4% FOMC median, and sees a strong chance no further hikes are needed.
- Official statement
Jefferson speaks at the University of Virginia on policy patience
Jefferson said future adjustments should rest on data, the outlook and the balance of risks, and that his colleagues' judgment may take more time; Polymarket odds for an October hike were cited at 23%.
- Official statement
September jobs report undershoots and prior months are revised down
Payrolls rose 29,000 against a forecast of 84,000 with unemployment at 4.2%, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics cut July and August job gains by a combined 60,000.
- Resolution
October hike largely priced out by Friday
Bitcoin Insider reported futures odds at 22%, down from 66% on Monday, with the largest drops after the Jefferson speech and the soft PCE print, while Bitcoin gained about 1% over the same stretch.
How coverage built up
Independent sources over time, counted the way the consensus panel counts them: a republication of a wire story does not move the line.
- 30 Sept 2026, 08:45 UTC: Crypto News (CryptoNews.net) — 1 independent source, 1 reports
- 30 Sept 2026, 16:40 UTC: CoinGape — 2 independent sources, 2 reports
- 30 Sept 2026, 19:59 UTC: Crypto News (CryptoNews.net) — 3 independent sources, 4 reports
- 1 Oct 2026, 04:04 UTC: Crypto.News — 4 independent sources, 5 reports
- 2 Oct 2026, 18:05 UTC: Protos — 5 independent sources, 10 reports
Affected entities
Also mentioned: Base, Binance
Original sources
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