Five years of daily data show near-zero correlation between oil and bitcoin
Binance Research analysis of five years of oil and bitcoin price data found almost zero correlation, though oil still reaches bitcoin through inflation and rate policy.
Why it matters
The finding undercuts the common assumption that oil shocks drive bitcoin, which matters for anyone reading bitcoin moves as an inflation or energy-cost signal. It also leaves open the indirect channel the research itself identifies, since oil acting through inflation and central bank rates would not show up as direct price correlation.
Key facts
Binance Research found daily, weekly and monthly correlations between oil and bitcoin almost zero over the past five years
Reported by Bitcoin.com News
The oil and bitcoin data covers Brent and WTI crude prices from FRED against bitcoin prices from Coingecko and Coinmarketcap
Reported by Bitcoin.com News
Binance Research found meaningful oil-BTC correlation only during 2020-2022, when monetary easing boosted liquidity
Reported by Bitcoin.com News
Over the past 12 months WTI crude prices rose around 40% while bitcoin fell around 25%
40 %Reported by Bitcoin.com News
From February to May bitcoin gained around a quarter while oil stayed about 50% above its pre-war price
25 %Reported by Bitcoin.com News
From May through June 30 bitcoin and WTI each fell almost 30% but their daily price changes did not line up
30 %Reported by Bitcoin.com News
Most of bitcoin's fall came before the war started in February, and Crypto News points to ETF sell-offs and Strategy's first BTC sale since 2022 in May
Reported by Bitcoin.com News
Reuters reported that U.S. stocks fell as oil prices and Treasury yields climbed, linking rising yields to inflation concerns and expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening
Reported by Crypto News (CryptoNews.net)
What happened
Binance Research, writing through Bitcoin.com News, compared five years of daily, weekly and monthly percentage changes in Brent and WTI crude from FRED against bitcoin prices from Coingecko and Coinmarketcap, and found daily, weekly and monthly correlations close to zero, where +1 would mean the two move in lockstep and -1 that they move in opposite directions. Crypto News republished that analysis and added month-by-month detail: WTI rose about 40% over the past 12 months while bitcoin fell about 25%, bitcoin gained roughly a quarter from February to May while oil held near 50% above its pre-war level, and from May through June 30 both bitcoin and WTI dropped almost 30% without their daily moves lining up. The same account ties bitcoin's weakness before the war that began in February to pressure unrelated to oil, naming ETF sell-offs and Strategy's first BTC sale since 2022 in May. Binance Research's own finding was that meaningful oil-BTC correlation appeared only in 2020-2022, during monetary easing, and that oil reaches bitcoin indirectly through inflation and central bank rate expectations. Two later Crypto News items sit alongside the study without extending it: one reports that Reuters saw U.S. stocks fall as oil prices and Treasury yields climbed, linking higher yields to inflation concerns and expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening, and one from Crypto News Flash reports $2.5 billion of bitcoin inflows alongside bitcoin's Nasdaq correlation falling to a two-year low. Nothing in the evidence settles how durable the oil non-correlation is, since all of it rests on a single research note distributed across the outlets here.
How the story developed
- First report
First report by Bitcoin.com News
Does Oil Move Bitcoin Price? No and Yes
- Update
Binance Research publishes five-year oil-BTC correlation study
Analysis of daily, weekly and monthly percentage changes in Brent and WTI crude from FRED and bitcoin prices from Coingecko and Coinmarketcap finds correlations close to zero.
- Update
Crypto News syndicates the correlation study
Republishes the five-year non-correlation analysis along with month-by-month detail on bitcoin and WTI moves.
- Update
Reuters links rising Treasury yields and oil to U.S. stock decline
Reuters report says U.S. stocks fell as oil prices and Treasury yields climbed, tied to inflation concerns and expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening.
- Independent corroboration
Independently corroborated by Crypto News Flash
Bitcoin Draws $2.5B as Its Nasdaq Link Falls to a Two-Year Low
- Update
Crypto News Flash reports $2.5B of bitcoin inflows as Nasdaq correlation falls
Digital asset investment products took in $3.55 billion last week, the largest weekly total of 2026 per CoinShares' Sept. 29 digest, with bitcoin at $2.52 billion and product AUM around $173 billion; CME bitcoin contracts have recovered 72% from June lows and bitcoin's Nasdaq correlation is the lowest since 2024.
How coverage built up
Independent sources over time, counted the way the consensus panel counts them: a republication of a wire story does not move the line.
- 28 Sept 2026, 21:20 UTC: Bitcoin.com News, official — 1 independent source, 1 reports
- 30 Sept 2026, 18:08 UTC: Crypto News (CryptoNews.net) — 2 independent sources, 3 reports
- 30 Sept 2026, 18:30 UTC: Crypto News Flash — 3 independent sources, 4 reports
Affected entities
Also mentioned: Binance, European Central Bank, Base, International Monetary Fund
Original sources
| Publisher | Report | Role | Published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin.com News Company, official | Does Oil Move Bitcoin Price? No and Yes | Original | |
| Crypto News Flash Crypto media | Bitcoin Draws $2.5B as Its Nasdaq Link Falls to a Two-Year Low | Independent | |
| Crypto News (CryptoNews.net) Aggregator | Does Oil Move Bitcoin Price? No and Yes | Syndicated | |
| Crypto News (CryptoNews.net) Aggregator | What Happens to Bitcoin, Gold and Stocks When Bond Yields Rise? | Syndicated |
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