US and Japan bond yields hit multi-decade highs as analysts dispute the Bitcoin link
US 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields hit 23-year highs and Japanese 10-year yields reached 1996 levels, while CoinDesk and VanEck analysts say Bitcoin's long-term correlation with yields is near zero.
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Why it matters
A hiking cycle in both the US and Japan tightens the liquidity crypto markets depend on and raises the hurdle for a non-yielding asset, though the measured short-term relationship between yields and Bitcoin is weak. Open questions are whether the dollar-driven weakness in Bitcoin persists and whether higher Japanese domestic yields pull capital home from yen-funded carry trades.
Where the sources disagree
Whether rising bond yields threaten Bitcoin
no long-term correlation; weak relationship driven more by the dollar
CoinDesk, Crypto News (CryptoNews.net), Bitcoin Insider
yields above 5% pressure a non-yielding asset and add tightening risk
Bitcoin Insider, Crypto.News, Crypto News (CryptoNews.net)
CoinDesk and Bitcoin Insider report near-zero correlation figures and VanEck's Sigel told CNBC Bitcoin has virtually no correlation with bond yields, while Bitcoin Insider and Crypto News argue debt above 5% raises the bar for a non-yielding asset and stronger data adds Fed tightening risk.
Exact level of the US 10-year Treasury yield on September 24, 2026
5.13%
CoinDesk
5.145%
Crypto News (CryptoNews.net)
CoinDesk reports 5.13% while Crypto News reports 5.145% for the same session.
Figures that do not reconcile
Found by comparing the numbers in the reports automatically. They are differences, not yet confirmed to be about the same thing.
size of the holdings (treasury)
5%
Crypto.News
5.4%
Crypto News (CryptoNews.net)
Crypto.News reports 5%, Crypto News (CryptoNews.net) reports 5.4% (7% apart).
Key facts
The US 10-year Treasury yield jumped 15 basis points to its highest level since 2007, with reports giving the level as 5.13% and 5.145%.
5.13 %Disputed figureReported by CoinDesk
The US 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest level in 23 years, reported as 5.4% and as above 5.44%, its highest since 2004.
5.4 %Disputed figureReported by Crypto News (CryptoNews.net)
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16, its first hike since July 2023, and traders price four quarter-point hikes by June 2027.
25 basis pointsReported by Bitcoin Insider
US manufacturing PMI came in at 57 against expectations of 53.7, and the October 28 Fed rate hike probability rose to 73.1%.
57 indexReported by Crypto News (CryptoNews.net)
Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose 10 basis points to 3.075%, its highest since August 1996, after the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.25%.
3.075 %Reported by Crypto.News
The Federal Reserve rate hike probability for its October 28 meeting was reported at 73.1%.
73.1 %Reported by Crypto News (CryptoNews.net)
Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with US 10-year Treasury yield moves is -0.18 and its one-year correlation is -0.03, and Bitcoin Insider reported Bitcoin fell to about $83,300 from roughly $87,300 within days.
-0.18 correlationReported by CoinDesk
VanEck's Matthew Sigel told CNBC Bitcoin has 'virtually no correlation with bond yields' and pointed to persistent negative correlation with the US Dollar Index as the more useful macro explanation.
Disputed figureReported by Crypto News (CryptoNews.net)
What happened
US Treasury yields reached levels not seen in decades on September 24, 2026: CoinDesk reports the 10-year yield jumped 15 basis points to 5.13%, its highest since 2007, while Crypto News puts the same yield at 5.145% and the 30-year above 5.44% at 5.4% in separate reports, its highest level since 2004. The move followed a manufacturing PMI of 57 against expectations of 53.7, a weak five-year Treasury auction that left indirect buyers short, and a 25 basis point Federal Reserve hike on September 16 that Bitcoin Insider says was the first since July 2023. In Japan, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate from 1% to 1.25% on Friday, and Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose 10 basis points to 3.075% on September 24, its highest since August 1996, with the five-year at a record 2.375% and the 30-year at 4.13%; the governor Kazuo Ueda signalled more hikes. Bitcoin fell to around $83,300 from roughly $87,300, though sources disagree on the low: Crypto News cites $83,800 in one report and near $83,300 in another. Analysts dispute how much of that matters. CoinDesk calculates a 90-day correlation between Bitcoin's daily returns and the 10-year yield's daily moves of -0.18, and Bitcoin Insider puts the one-year figure at -0.03, which is why VanEck's Matthew Sigel told CNBC Bitcoin has 'virtually no correlation with bond yields' and attributes the pullback to dollar strength instead. Bitcoin Insider still argues that debt yielding more than 5% raises the bar for an asset paying no coupon, and a TradingDesk study by Sören Karau published in 2023 in the Journal of International Money and Finance found Bitcoin's immediate reaction to Fed announcements became systematic only after late 2020. It remains unclear whether the move persists: the carry trade has not shown signs of a disorderly unwind, and Bitcoin held above its 50-week moving average near $78,800.
How the story developed
- Official statement
Bank of Japan raises policy rate from 1% to 1.25%
Governor Kazuo Ueda signalled more rate hikes could follow.
- First report
First report by Crypto.News
Japan bond yields hit multi decade highs: Are Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies at risk?
- Update
Japan bond yields reach multi-decade highs after BOJ hike
Reuters reported Japan's 10-year yield up 10 basis points to 3.075%, the highest since August 1996, with the five-year at a record 2.375%; Japanese markets had been closed through Wednesday for public holidays.
- Independent corroboration
Independently corroborated by CoinDesk
The data proves it: Bitcoin doesn't care about rising bond yields over long-term
- Update
US 10-year Treasury yield tops 5.13%, highest since 2007
CoinDesk reports a 15 basis point jump alongside a 21 percent surge in Treasury market volatility, which helped push Bitcoin from $87,200 to $83,500 on Wednesday.
- Update
US bond yields reach 23-year highs after strong PMI and weak auction
The 30-year yield reached 5.4% and the 10-year touched 5%, with October 28 Fed hike probability at 73.1% after a weak five-year auction left indirect buyers short.
- Update
VanEck's Sigel says bond yields do not drive Bitcoin long term
Sigel told CNBC Bitcoin has 'virtually no correlation with bond yields' and pointed to DXY strength; the role of bond yields over the long run was also covered separately on Crypto News.
- Update
Bitcoin tests $83,000 as Cowen assesses the weekly close
Benjamin Cowen said the weekly Bitcoin close will lay the groundwork for Q4 2026, with acceptance above the May high improving the bull case and a rejection looking like a fakeout before typical Q4 weakness.
How coverage built up
Independent sources over time, counted the way the consensus panel counts them: a republication of a wire story does not move the line.
- 24 Sept 2026, 06:48 UTC: Crypto.News — 1 independent source, 1 reports
- 24 Sept 2026, 09:48 UTC: CoinDesk — 2 independent sources, 2 reports
- 24 Sept 2026, 18:59 UTC: Crypto News (CryptoNews.net) — 3 independent sources, 3 reports
Affected entities
Also mentioned: International Monetary Fund, BlackRock, Germany, China, Base, Chainlink
Original sources
| Publisher | Report | Role | Published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto.News Crypto media | Japan bond yields hit multi decade highs: Are Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies at risk? | Original | |
| CoinDesk Crypto media | The data proves it: Bitcoin doesn't care about rising bond yields over long-term | Independent | |
| Crypto News (CryptoNews.net) Aggregator | Why a 23-Year High in Bond Yields Isn’t Scaring Bitcoin This Time | Syndicated | |
| Crypto News (CryptoNews.net) Aggregator | VanEck Analyst: Bitcoin Isn’t Reliant on Bond Yields Over the Long Run | Syndicated | |
| Bitcoin Insider Aggregator | Bitcoin faces bond market test, and the first round hurt | Syndicated | |
| Crypto News (CryptoNews.net) Aggregator | Why Bitcoin Reacts More to Macro Than It Did Before 2020 | Syndicated | |
| Crypto News (CryptoNews.net) Aggregator | Benjamin Cowen Reveals Bitcoin Level That Could Define Q4 2026 | Syndicated |
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