Coin Metrics study finds USDC and USDT supply growth respond differently to crypto market returns
Coin Metrics research shows USDC growth slows after strong crypto returns while USDT growth accelerates, complicating stablecoin supply as a Bitcoin demand signal.
Why it matters
The research challenges the common practice of using combined stablecoin supply as a proxy for Bitcoin buying pressure, showing issuer composition matters and supply growth reflects varied demand types beyond spot accumulation.
Key facts
Coin Metrics published a study on October 20 analyzing four years of weekly USDC and USDT supply data
Reported by CryptoSlate
Stronger non-stablecoin crypto market returns correlate with slower USDC growth the following week
Reported by CryptoSlate
Stronger non-stablecoin crypto market returns correlate with faster USDT growth the following week
Reported by CryptoSlate
A lending-yield association was found specific to USDC but not USDT
Reported by CryptoSlate
No model in the study explains more than 25% of weekly stablecoin supply variation
25 %Reported by CryptoSlate
Carry adds explanatory information for USDC supply growth
Reported by CryptoSlate
What happened
CryptoSlate reported on a Coin Metrics study published October 20 that analyzed four years of weekly data to test six drivers of USDC and USDT supply growth. The study found that stronger non-stablecoin crypto market returns in one week correlated with slower USDC growth the following week but faster USDT growth. A lending-yield association was specific to USDC. No model explained more than 25% of weekly supply variation. The findings suggest aggregate stablecoin issuance should not be treated as a single pool of cash waiting to buy Bitcoin, since tokens can serve lending, collateral, or payment demand before reaching spot markets.
How the story developed
- Update
Coin Metrics publishes stablecoin supply growth study
Research analyzing four years of weekly USDC and USDT data finds divergent responses to crypto market returns
- First report
First report by CryptoSlate
Crypto rallies point to slower USDC growth and faster USDT growth, study finds
How coverage built up
Independent sources over time, counted the way the consensus panel counts them: a republication of a wire story does not move the line.
- 21 Oct 2026, 13:50 UTC: CryptoSlate — 1 independent source, 1 reports
- 22 Oct 2026, 07:21 UTC: Altcoin Buzz — 2 independent sources, 2 reports
Affected entities
Also mentioned: Binance, Circle, Ripple, Bybit, Visa, Hyperliquid
Original sources
| Publisher | Report | Role | Published |
|---|---|---|---|
| CryptoSlate Crypto media | Crypto rallies point to slower USDC growth and faster USDT growth, study finds | Original | |
| Altcoin Buzz Crypto media | USDC and USDT Move in Opposite Directions After Crypto Rallies | Independent |
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