Keefe, Bruyette & Woods puts 75% odds on a turn in the crypto cycle
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Stephen Glagola assigned a 75% probability to a crypto cycle turn, published alongside the bank's resumption of coverage of Coinbase.
Why it matters
The bank's Coinbase coverage resumed on the same note that carries the 75% cycle call, so its view of the exchange rests on the same pattern-matching argument. Both articles state that argument has failed before, given rallies above 30% that reversed and no capitulation signal in onchain data. Its significance is limited to one bank's published assessment.
Key facts
Stephen Glagola assigned a 75% probability to a turn in the digital asset cycle in a Sept. 28 Keefe, Bruyette and Woods report that used bitcoin as a proxy for the wider market.
75 %Reported by Bitcoin.com News
The Sept. 28 report accompanied Keefe, Bruyette and Woods' resumption of coverage of crypto exchange Coinbase, listed on Nasdaq under COIN.
Reported by Bitcoin.com News
The report estimates bitcoin fell 53% from its October 2025 peak to a June 30 closing low.
53 %Reported by Bitcoin.com News
The June 30 low arrived about 8.8 months after the October 2025 peak, against an average of roughly 12 months for the previous three bitcoin bear markets.
8.8 monthsReported by Bitcoin.com News
Bitcoin's three previous bear markets fell about 82% on average from peak to trough.
82 %Reported by Bitcoin.com News
Bitcoin closed near $84,400 on Sept. 26, about 44% above its June 30 close near $58,500.
84,400 USDReported by Crypto News (CryptoNews.net)
Bitcoin slipped to about $83,100 on Sept. 28, roughly 1.6% below the previous session.
83,100 USDReported by Crypto News (CryptoNews.net)
Glagola found that onchain indicators have not yet shown the deep capitulation seen near previous bitcoin bottoms.
Reported by Crypto News (CryptoNews.net)
What happened
Stephen Glagola, an analyst at Keefe, Bruyette and Woods, put a 75% probability on a turn in the digital asset cycle in a Sept. 28 report that accompanied the firm's resumption of coverage on Coinbase (Nasdaq: COIN). He used bitcoin as a proxy for the wider market and said the 75% figure expresses his assessment of the cycle, not a forecast of bitcoin's next price. His case rests on the timing and depth of the decline: bitcoin's 53% slide from its October 2025 peak to a June 30 closing low took about 8.8 months, against roughly 12 months for the previous three bear markets, which averaged about 82% peak-to-trough falls. Bitcoin closed near $84,400 on Sept. 26, about 44% above the June 30 close near $58,500, then slipped to about $83,100 on Sept. 28, down roughly 1.6% from the prior session. Glagola also noted that earlier bear markets contained rallies above 30% that later failed and that onchain indicators have not yet shown the deep capitulation seen near previous bottoms. Crypto News, which ran the same writeup, also cited a Sept. 24 holder cost-basis crossover that another author read as bull-market confirmation and a more cautious reading from Fidelity; both articles trace back to the single Keefe, Bruyette and Woods report, so no second outlet independently tested the call.
How the story developed
- Update
Holder cost-basis study reports a crossover read as bull-market confirmation
A Sept. 24 analysis of bitcoin holders' average purchase prices identified a crossover that its author interpreted as confirmation of a bull market.
- Update
Bitcoin closes near $84,400, up about 44% from the June 30 close
- Update
Keefe, Bruyette and Woods analyst publishes 75% cycle-turn call alongside Coinbase coverage resumption
Stephen Glagola assigned a 75% probability to a turn in the digital asset cycle and said the figure is not a bitcoin price forecast.
- Update
Bitcoin slips about 1.6% to near $83,100
- First report
First report by Bitcoin.com News
Analyst Sees 75% Chance Crypto Cycle Has Turned as Bitcoin Pulls Back
How coverage built up
Independent sources over time, counted the way the consensus panel counts them: a republication of a wire story does not move the line.
- 28 Sept 2026, 23:40 UTC: Bitcoin.com News, official — 1 independent source, 1 reports
Affected entities
Also mentioned: Brian Armstrong, Nasdaq
Original sources
| Publisher | Report | Role | Published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin.com News Company, official | Analyst Sees 75% Chance Crypto Cycle Has Turned as Bitcoin Pulls Back | Original | |
| Crypto News (CryptoNews.net) Aggregator | Analyst Sees 75% Chance Crypto Cycle Has Turned as Bitcoin Pulls Back | Syndicated |
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